On prediction market sites, users buy and sell Yes and No tokens as pairs. Each pair corresponds to a specific binary question. A Yes token pays $1 if the answer to the question is Yes, while a No token pays $1 if the answer is No. Together, the value of both tokens always totals $1. Traders use this arrangement to look for arbitrage opportunities. To compare odds, fees, and liquidity across various best prediction market sites, visit https://predictionmarketscomparer.com/.
How Do Yes/No Token Pairs Work?
Each token in the pair represents a separate outcome for the same event. One indicates a particular result, while the other reflects the opposite.
- A Yes token pays $1 when the event occurs and $0 when not;
- A No token pays $1 when the event does not occur;
- One pair totals exactly $1 on resolution;
- Prices of Yes and No always sum to $1;
- An arbitrage opportunity exists otherwise;
- Traders buy the token that reflects their probability view;
- You can exit your position before the event resolves;
- Tokens redeem at $1 or zero.
How Do Markets Price Probability?
Traders invest with the expectation that specific outcomes will occur. If a person believes an event has a 40 percent chance, they purchase Yes at $0.40 and No at $0.60. Later, the price of Yes increases to $0.55, while No falls to $0.45.
Prices fall between 0.1 and 99.9 cents. Traders place buy or sell orders for shares through a central order book. When new information becomes available, traders update these order books.
Where Can You Trade in 2026?
Five prediction market sites lead the sector. Each site operates with Yes/No token pairs as its unit.
- Polymarket runs on Polygon and settles every trade in USDC;
- Polymarket operates a separate CFTC-regulated US exchange that launched in December 2025;
- Polymarket backed the $112 million acquisition of QCEX to secure its regulated license;
- Kalshi is a CFTC-designated contract market that has held federal approval since 2020;
- Kalshi contracts are reachable through brokers, which now include Robinhood for retail access;
- Limitless operates on Base with zero maker fees and rapid-fire short-term markets;
- Azuro supports over 50 decentralized apps and has processed over $414 million in lifetime volume.
What Do Trading Fees Look Like?
In 2026, fee structures vary across top prediction market sites. Polymarket charges 0% on most pairs. The international venue has a formula-based taker fee, though its geopolitics markets remain free. The US venue charges takers at most $1.50 per 100 contracts at 50 cents.
Kalshi charges a fee of 1 to 7 percent on profits from taker trades. Users can deposit or withdraw funds without paying a fee, although network gas still applies. ACH transactions do not incur any fees.
Polymarket charges a 0.75 percent fee for sports bets and 1.80 percent for crypto markets. PredictIt takes a 5 percent fee from profits, plus another 5 percent when users withdraw funds.
Volume and Depth Across Markets
Trade volume measures the total amount of money that prediction markets process. It also reflects how active the order books are on different platforms. In June 2026, Kalshi processed $31.5 billion. During the same month, Polymarket saw over $10 billion in trades. Kalshi’s valuation stood at $2 billion.
During the 2024 election cycle, traders on Polymarket executed around $3.7 billion in trades. Azuro reported $414 million in trading volume. Meanwhile, Kalshi recorded over $1.4 billion in activity on its World Cup winner market.
ICE owns the NYSE and supports Polymarket. This backing gives the sector credibility and shows that finance values decentralized probability markets.
Which Event Types Are Available?
Market categories span multiple domains. Each site provides a unique selection of event types, and certain sites concentrate on specific categories.
- Kalshi covers economic indicators such as GDP releases, jobless claims, and inflation data;
- Kalshi covers weather and elections with contracts on hurricanes, snowfall, and vote outcomes;
- Polymarket covers geopolitics and crypto including diplomatic events, sanctions, and token prices;
- Limitless focuses on short-term markets that resolve within hours or days;
- Myriad Markets embeds inside media apps and settles through Chainlink oracles for real-time news events;
- Geopolitics markets carry zero fees for takers on the international Polymarket venue;
- Regulated US venue has thinner list compared to the global Polymarket selection.
How Do Outcomes Get Decided?
Resolution differs by platform. On Polymarket, UMA’s oracle determines the outcome. Token holders rely on UMA to verify or challenge results. The US exchange settles outcomes by following its rulebook.
When an event ends, Kalshi staff review the outcome and settle the contracts. Each contract complies with CFTC rules. Tokens from correct predictions are worth one dollar. After fees, tokens from incorrect predictions have no value.
A dispute occurs on Polymarket, and UMA token holders vote on the dispute outcome.
What Do You Need to Start?
Kalshi allows users from approximately 143 countries to access its site, though about 54 jurisdictions remain restricted. In the United States, users must complete KYC and AML verification to use Kalshi. Polymarket, on the other hand, does not permit US users to access its platform.
Polymarket users keep funds in their own wallets and use USDC on Polygon for transactions, as the site neither holds user funds nor acts as a counterparty. Limitless requires wallet onboarding without mandatory KYC. PredictIt operates under a CFTC no-action letter, which permits traders to invest up to $850 in each contract.
Users can deposit or withdraw money via ACH in the Kalshi app, which does not charge fees for these transactions.
Conclusion
Yes/No token pairs enable trading based on event outcomes. The combined price of each token pair is always $1. This structure eliminates uncertainty about payouts, and there is no need to translate odds with this model. By 2026, all prediction sites will use this trading model, including Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.
Before placing their first trade, traders should review the terms and compare different platforms, as each venue establishes its own fees and access rules. Finding the best fit for strategy and location is important. In June 2026, Polymarket recorded more than $10 billion in trades. Kalshi reported a trading volume of $31.5 billion.